Turbulence and Contested Claims: A Snapshot of May 29, 2025
Observing global events unfold on a single day, like May 29, 2025, offers a potent reminder of the multifaceted challenges facing nations and institutions. Across continents, stories emerge of governance under pressure, security concerns, shifting economic landscapes, and fundamental rights in question.
In Nigeria, a stark picture of insecurity is painted by Amnesty International, reporting that at least 10,217 people were killed in armed attacks in Benue, Edo, Katsina, Kebbi, Plateau, Sokoto, and Zamfara states since President Bola Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023. This period, marking two years of the Tinubu presidency, also saw 672 villages sacked by gunmen and bandits across these states, leading to significant mass displacement and threatening food security. Benue state recorded the highest number of deaths with 6,896 fatalities, followed by Plateau with 2,630.
Amnesty International Nigeria’s Director noted that despite a promise to enhance security, “things have only gotten worse,” with authorities allegedly failing to protect the rights to life, physical integrity, liberty, and security. The report highlights the emergence of new armed groups and continued village sackings in several states. In Zamfara state alone, over 481 villages have reportedly been sacked, with 529 others controlled by bandits. These attacks not only claim lives but also destroy critical infrastructure like clinics, schools, and places of worship, depriving survivors of their livelihoods. The displacement figures are significant, with over 450,000 people displaced in Benue and 65,000 in Plateau, many resorting to begging. Amnesty International concluded that the government’s perceived failure to act decisively fuels “a cycle of impunity”.
This grim security assessment stands in contrast to aspects of the government’s own narrative. President Tinubu listed what he described as his administration’s “successes” on his two-year anniversary. However, a claim he highlighted regarding Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio appears to be contradicted by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data. While President Tinubu claimed the ratio dropped from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024, CBN economic reports indicate that for the full year 2024, the federal government’s retained revenue was N8.654 trillion, while debt service costs were N9.717 trillion. This suggests a debt service-to-revenue ratio of 112%, significantly higher than the 40% claimed by the administration.
Amidst these challenges, Nigeria’s energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation. The Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, which began large-scale production in early 2024, is reshaping Africa’s downstream oil market. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, its rising output is sharply reducing Nigeria’s dependence on petrol imports. According to energy consultancy CITAC, South Africa has now overtaken Nigeria as Africa’s largest fuel importer. In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tons of refined petroleum products, compared to South Africa’s 4.2 million tons. This marks a significant milestone for Nigeria, which has historically relied on imported fuel despite being a major crude producer. Projections suggest Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 could fall to 6.4 million tons, less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tons. The Dangote refinery’s output has largely displaced international clean product imports in West Africa.
This shift is impacting traditional suppliers; for example, Swiss-based oil trader Mocoh is undergoing a strategic overhaul after losing most of its petrol trade with Nigeria’s NNPC, now partnering with Dangote to export surplus fuel regionally. Separately, TotalEnergies announced the sale of its non-operated 12.5 per cent interest in the OML118 Production Sharing Contract, which contains the Bonga field, to Shell for $510m, as part of its strategy to focus on assets with low costs and emissions.
While this economic shift is positive, other infrastructure issues persist, highlighted by the unfortunate incident where an examination hall collapsed during a WAEC exam in Taraba State, injuring students and teachers and raising concerns about the state of public school infrastructure. Reports indicate up to 30 students were injured. The incident occurred while students were writing their exams.
Moving beyond Nigeria, the analysis from Guinea points to a fragile transition back to civilian rule after the 2021 military coup. Despite some positive steps, like announcing a constitutional referendum date, a critical crisis of confidence persists between political actors and transitional authorities. This lack of trust stems from slow progress on the transition timetable, insufficient consensus on the electoral process, and the closing of political and civic space. A major point of contention is disagreement surrounding General Mamadi Doumbouya’s potential candidacy for the next presidential election, despite his previous promises not to run. Constraints on civic life include a ban on protests since May 2022 and restrictions on media.
Across the Atlantic, the United States sees multiple challenges centered around the Trump administration. A significant development is a US Federal Court ruling that blocked President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imported goods from various countries, as well as specific levies on China, Mexico, and Canada. The court ruled that the power to regulate commerce with other nations belongs exclusively to Congress and is not overridden by the president’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump had cited. The administration vowed to appeal the ruling. This legal challenge underscores a fundamental disagreement over executive power.
Simultaneously, the Trump administration is intensifying its pressure on US higher education, particularly targeting foreign students and institutions like Harvard. The administration vowed to “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students,” especially those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields. This comes amidst a broader move to suspend visa appointments for students worldwide temporarily for increased social media screening. These actions are taking place against the backdrop of an intensifying legal and political clash with Harvard University. Trump has sought to penalize Harvard through measures like revoking its ability to host foreign students, terminating federal contracts, slashing grants, and questioning its tax-exempt status, which the university is contesting in court as an attack on academic freedom. Harvard’s President criticized these actions as disproportionate and misdirected. A federal judge had previously paused a policy that would end Harvard’s ability to admit international students, who make up over a quarter of its population. The university held its graduation ceremony amidst this tension. Separately, Elon Musk announced his departure from a temporary role in the Trump administration as a Special Government Employee, citing the end of his scheduled time and recent criticisms of the President’s budget bill.
Finally, daily life continues with its own events, like the tragic crash of a South Korean Navy patrol aircraft near Pohang, which resulted in three bodies being recovered from the four people on board. An investigation into the cause of the crash is underway.
May 29, 2025, reveals a world grappling with complex issues: from the devastating human cost of insecurity in Nigeria and the precarious path to democracy in Guinea to significant legal battles over executive power and intense political pressure on academic institutions in the United States. Economic shifts offer glimpses of potential progress, but fundamental challenges like infrastructural safety and governmental accountability remain pressing concerns. It is a day that highlights the constant interplay between official narratives and the challenging realities on the ground, a snapshot of a world in perpetual motion and contention.
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